DesigningDecision Systems
Models / Lab / System 01

African Strategic Leverage & Commodity Control Lab

Assesses structural leverage across African commodity systems and tests how policy instruments alter bargaining power and second-order risk. The lab covers 20 countries, 11 commodities, seven policy instruments and six risk dimensions.

Economic Statecraft, Trade and Coercion4 input groups7 output groups
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Decision problem

What the model examines

How can African producer states convert commodity endowments into durable bargaining power while limiting the risks created by restrictive or interventionist policy?

Analytical method

How the model is structured

A seven-dimension Leverage Vector combines buyer diversification, substitutability barriers, stockpiling difficulty, chokepoint control, processing capacity, financial independence and regulatory leverage. Seven configurable policy instruments create first-order leverage effects and second-order risk effects calibrated against named historical precedents.

Interface

What this model is built to test

  • Leverage Analysis metrics with a decision rationale
  • Commodity exposure table and leverage heatmap
  • Policy Simulator with radar comparison
  • Comparative commodity dashboard
  • Country Explorer with institutional and trade data
Inputs

Decision controls

  • Commodity focus
  • Focus country
  • Policy instrument and configurable parameters
  • Commodity comparison set
Outputs

Analytical returns

  • Composite leverage score and level band
  • Seven-dimension leverage profile
  • Before and after policy effects
  • Six second-order risk scores
  • Cross-commodity rankings
  • Country economic and institutional profiles
  • Decision rationale and intervention logic
Fields of inquiry
Economic Statecraft, Trade and CoercionIncentive Design and Strategic InteractionRisk, Uncertainty and Forecasting

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