Models for decision structure.
The models examine behavioural choices, strategic bargaining, trade exposure and geopolitical leverage. Each one makes the forces shaping a difficult decision visible and testable.
African Strategic Leverage & Commodity Control Lab
Assesses structural leverage across African commodity systems and tests how policy instruments alter bargaining power and second-order risk. The lab covers 20 countries, 11 commodities, seven policy instruments and six risk dimensions.
Choice Architecture Studio
A behavioural decision-design workbench for restructuring choice environments and observing how heterogeneous actor types respond. It contains 28 scenarios, 22 architectural parameters, 11 actor types and seven parameter categories.
Coercion Resilience Mapper
Maps commodity-corridor exposure under great-power rivalry and compares how defensive measures restore resilience after a shock. The current analytical environment is centred on Ghanaian trade, infrastructure and commodity relationships.
Decisions Forensics Lab
A decision-science workbench that examines choices in three directions: forward through behavioural lenses, backward through diagnostic forensics and laterally across agent archetypes. It also includes a 24-question decision profile and a library of 32 biases.
EPA Bargaining Engine
Models Economic Partnership Agreement renegotiation as a sequential bargaining game among an African state, the European Union and the AfCFTA Council. It connects equilibrium analysis to threat testing, sensitivity analysis, concession sequencing and coalition comparison.
EU-Africa Trade Circumvention Simulator
Estimates the risk that goods are rerouted or mis-declared where European Union Economic Partnership Agreement rules of origin meet AfCFTA liberalisation. It combines anomaly screening, behavioural simulation and rule-based policy recommendations across African countries.
Geoeconomic Coercion Early-Warning Model
Scores bilateral trade relationships for exposure to economic coercion and separates the result into structural vulnerability, escalation likelihood and impact severity. Users can change the six dimension weights and stress one driver at a time.
Investor-State Dispute Analysis Engine
Models the recovery pathway for an investor-state claim through a seven-step analytical workflow. It connects a documented African ISDS evidence base to jurisdictional risk, award distribution, annulment, enforcement friction, settlement discounting and pathway comparison.
Sanctions Escalation Cascade Simulator
Treats sanctions as a six-stage escalation system rather than a binary decision. It connects transition risk and cost crossover analysis to circumvention feasibility, third-party contagion and sanctioning-coalition stability.
The Superpowers Alignment Tax
Estimates the economic cost or gain of great-power alignment choices for African states. The model builds alignment signals, maps economic dependency and decomposes a chosen posture across thirteen gain and loss channels with behavioural adjustments and uncertainty bounds.
Weaponized Interdependence & Chokepoint Simulator
Implements the Farrell and Newman weaponized-interdependence framework as a weighted network model. It maps eight institutional and infrastructural chokepoints, simulates coercive intervention and measures how immediate damage can accelerate a rival ecosystem that erodes future leverage.