Investor-State Dispute Analysis Engine
Models the recovery pathway for an investor-state claim through a seven-step analytical workflow. It connects a documented African ISDS evidence base to jurisdictional risk, award distribution, annulment, enforcement friction, settlement discounting and pathway comparison.
What the model examines
How does a nominal investor-state claim translate into expected recovery and which enforcement pathways best balance success probability, time and cost?
How the model is structured
A Monte Carlo model follows a staged recovery chain: jurisdictional success, a historically bracketed award-to-claim ratio, annulment risk, enforcement probability and settlement discounting. Enforcement pathways are compared through success probability, timeline and cost. A fixed seed supports reproducible runs.
What this model is built to test
- Seven-step guided workflow
- Documented case evidence explorer
- Assumptions shown before simulation
- Recovery distribution and key metrics
- Enforcement-pathway ranking
- Recommendation driver list
- Exportable analytical rationale
Decision controls
- Pre-award or post-award analytical stage
- Respondent state
- Sector and treaty basis
- Investor nationality
- Claim amount
- Investment type
- Simulation draw count
- Optional fixed seed
- Evidence filters
- Recommendation confidence qualifier
Analytical returns
- Historical case framing metrics
- Filtered case evidence
- Explicit input and country-posture assumptions
- Jurisdictional success estimate
- Expected recovery and recovery rate
- Recovery distribution
- Expected time to recovery
- Ranked enforcement pathways
- Recommendation and key drivers
- Text rationale and CSV export
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