Models / Lab / System 03

Coercion Resilience Mapper

Maps commodity-corridor exposure under great-power rivalry and compares how defensive measures restore resilience after a shock. The current analytical environment is centred on Ghanaian trade, infrastructure and commodity relationships.

Economic Statecraft, Trade and Coercion6 input groups6 output groups
Decision problem

What the model examines

Which commodity corridors create concentrated exposure to external pressure and which countermeasures restore strategic position at an acceptable cost?

Analytical method

How the model is structured

A composite exposure model combines trade concentration, state capacity and corridor dependency. Monte Carlo shock simulation generates uncertainty bands across the chosen horizon while countermeasure profiles estimate recovery, cost and implementation time. A coercion ladder maps escalation thresholds across powers and shock types.

Interface

What this model is built to test

  • Executive vulnerability dashboard
  • Commodity by great-power exposure matrix
  • Shock Simulator with uncertainty bands
  • Countermeasure quick view
  • Coercion Ladder heatmap
  • Methodology and Sources section
Inputs

Decision controls

  • Commodity
  • Shock type
  • Coercing great power
  • Simulation horizon
  • Active countermeasures
  • Trade weighting
Outputs

Analytical returns

  • Composite vulnerability indices
  • Commodity by great-power exposure matrix
  • Monte Carlo shock paths with uncertainty bands
  • Countermeasure recovery and cost estimates
  • Escalation-threshold heatmap
  • Portfolio rankings
Fields of inquiry
Economic Statecraft, Trade and CoercionRisk, Uncertainty and ForecastingIncentive Design and Strategic Interaction

Related models

Shared analytical fields