Independent research practice
Scroll to inspectDecisions Have Architecture
Decode the structure behind high-stakes decisions, where constraints take hold and how outcomes can be shaped.
01 / Fields of inquiry
Six lenses for consequential choice.
The six lenses connect behavioural science, institutional design and economic statecraft around one practical question: What makes one outcome achievable and another prohibitively difficult?
Risk, Uncertainty and Forecasting
Incentive Design and Strategic Interaction
Institutional and Legal Design
Economic Statecraft, Trade and Coercion
Algorithmic Accountability and Public Governance
02 / Analytical sequence
From signal to strategy.
Essays, research and models trace how signals become structures, how structures shape choices and where a designed response can intervene.
Signal
Detect the event, pressure or pattern that makes a decision consequential.
Structure
Map the actors, rules and constraints defining the decision space.
Model
Formalise uncertainty, strategic behaviour and the consequences of competing actions.
Response
Design an intervention that can adapt as conditions change.
03 / Featured research
Public rules for hidden decisions.
The research examines contractual ambiguity, judgment and how algorithmic systems allocate uncertainty and the consequences of difficult choices.
Pricing Contractual Vagueness
Contracts often rely on open-ended language because no drafter can predict every future crisis. This paper asks what that flexibility costs when parties disagree about risk and courts may interpret the same clause differently. It uses a formal bargaining model to formulate proposals for clearer triggers, required renegotiation and interpretation that recognises the real cost of uncertainty.
Moral Design of Algorithmic Governance
When governments buy or build automated enforcement systems, inherited technical settings can decide whose claims are rejected and which conduct is flagged. This paper treats that hidden allocation as a matter for public authority. It sets out practical safeguards for disclosure, legislative oversight and public review.
Legal Governance of Classification Thresholds
Algorithmic scores do not decide anything until someone chooses the boundary that turns a score into government action. This paper examines how those thresholds are set in prisons, pretrial decisions and facial recognition. It finds that officials often record the boundary without explaining the alternatives or consequences, then explains where existing law can govern that act and proposes a Threshold Decision Record to document authority, alternatives, consequences and future revisions.
Judgment under pressure.
Essays on judgment under uncertainty, strategic interaction and the structures that shape what people and institutions do next.
04 / Featured essays
Why Game Theory Belongs at the Heart of Strategy
Read essayProspect Theory and the Discipline of Wiser Decisions
Read essayDesigning Treaties with Adversaries
Read essaySystems Thinking and the Logic of Unintended Consequences
Read essayStatistical Memory in Decision Making
Read essayDesigning Compliance Beyond Moral Appeals
Read essay05 / Featured models
Analytical models built to be explored
Explore models of geopolitical leverage, strategic bargaining, institutional disputes and the patterns that shape individual decisions.