Independent research practice
Featured simulatorDecisions HaveArchitecture
Decode the structure behind high-stakes decisions, where constraints take hold and how outcomes can be shaped.
Geoeconomic Statecraft Simulator
Map dependencies. Examine the consequences.
01 / Fields of inquiry
Six lenses for consequential choice.
The six lenses connect behavioural science, institutional design and economic statecraft around one practical question: What makes one outcome achievable and another prohibitively difficult?
Risk, Uncertainty and Forecasting
Incentive Design and Strategic Interaction
Institutional and Legal Design
Economic Statecraft, Trade and Coercion
Algorithmic Accountability and Public Governance
02 / Research & preprintsPublic rules.
All manuscriptsPublic rules.
Consequential choices.
Human Endorsement in Automated Government
What does a human sign-off really establish? Comparing Ofqual and Robodebt, this paper examines the evidence connecting human authorisation to automated decisions. It separates documented participation from claims that an endorsement legitimised a process, showing what the records support and what they leave unresolved.
Explore the paperJudgment under pressure.
Essays on judgment under uncertainty, strategic interaction and the structures that shape what people and institutions do next.
03 / Featured essays
Why Game Theory Belongs at the Heart of Strategy
Read essayProspect Theory and the Discipline of Wiser Decisions
Read essayDesigning Treaties with Adversaries
Read essaySystems Thinking and the Logic of Unintended Consequences
Read essayStatistical Memory in Decision Making
Read essayDesigning Compliance Beyond Moral Appeals
Read essay04 / Featured models
Analytical models built to be explored
Explore models of geopolitical leverage, strategic bargaining, institutional disputes and the patterns that shape individual decisions.
African Strategic Leverage & Commodity Control Lab
Choice Architecture Studio
Coercion Resilience Mapper
Decisions Forensics Lab
EPA Bargaining Engine
EU-Africa Trade Circumvention Simulator
Geoeconomic Coercion Early-Warning Model
Investor-State Dispute Analysis Engine
Sanctions Escalation Cascade Simulator
The Superpowers Alignment Tax
Weaponized Interdependence & Chokepoint Simulator
05 / Analytical sequence
From signal to strategy.
Essays, research and models trace how signals become structures, how structures shape choices and where a designed response can intervene.
Signal
Detect the event, pressure or pattern that makes a decision consequential.
Structure
Map the actors, rules and constraints defining the decision space.
Model
Formalise uncertainty, strategic behaviour and the consequences of competing actions.
Response
Design an intervention that can adapt as conditions change.