Weaponized Interdependence & Chokepoint Simulator
Implements the Farrell and Newman weaponized-interdependence framework as a weighted network model. It maps eight institutional and infrastructural chokepoints, simulates coercive intervention and measures how immediate damage can accelerate a rival ecosystem that erodes future leverage.
What the model examines
How much immediate leverage does a chokepoint create and when does using it generate enough collateral damage and substitution to become strategically self-defeating?
How the model is structured
A trade-weighted graph over 15 major economies computes betweenness, PageRank, eigenvector and HITS centrality. Closed-form target damage feeds an iterative cascade model. A Blowback Quotient combines substitution capacity, allied pain and ecosystem acceleration while logistic S-curves model how weaponisation shifts the path to a rival system.
What this model is built to test
- Global network graph with chokepoint hubs
- Eight-chokepoint deep dive
- Scenario Simulator
- Cascade propagation map
- Blowback Quotient decomposition
- Substitution S-curves
- Comparative scenarios
- Data Explorer
- Published equations and sources
Decision controls
- Chokepoint
- Target country
- Enforcing coalition
- Restriction severity
- Time horizon
- Cascade damping factor
- Network edge threshold
- Scenario comparison set
- Dataset and bloc filters
Analytical returns
- Network centrality measures
- Chokepoint leverage profile
- Target GDP impact
- Direct trade disruption
- Cascade collateral by country
- System-wide collateral cost
- Blowback Quotient and decomposition
- Substitution S-curves
- Cross-chokepoint and scenario comparisons
- CSV data and text policy report
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