DesigningDecision Systems
Models / Lab / System 07

Geoeconomic Coercion Early-Warning Model

Scores bilateral trade relationships for exposure to economic coercion and separates the result into structural vulnerability, escalation likelihood and impact severity. Users can change the six dimension weights and stress one driver at a time.

Economic Statecraft, Trade and Coercion6 input groups9 output groups
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Decision problem

What the model examines

Which bilateral relationships are structurally exposed to coercion, through which channel and under what escalation conditions?

Analytical method

How the model is structured

A deterministic weighted composite combines trade dependence, commodity concentration, diplomatic intensity, sector exposure, route exposure and alliance dynamics. Results are resolved into three analytical layers plus a secondary composite. A counterfactual control re-scores one stressed driver against the baseline.

Interface

What this model is built to test

  • Four-card analytical summary
  • Causal chain from exposure to consequence
  • Bilateral risk heatmap
  • Six-dimension driver breakdown
  • Strategic-sector dependency flags
  • Scenario narratives
  • Single-driver counterfactual
Inputs

Decision controls

  • Focus country
  • Six dimension weights
  • Bilateral pair
  • Sector-risk country
  • Scenario count and type
  • Counterfactual driver and adjustment
Outputs

Analytical returns

  • Structural vulnerability score
  • Escalation likelihood score
  • Impact severity score
  • Secondary overall composite
  • Bilateral risk matrix
  • Driver decomposition
  • Sector dependency flags
  • Scenario narratives
  • Counterfactual stress-test comparison
Fields of inquiry
Economic Statecraft, Trade and CoercionRisk, Uncertainty and ForecastingIncentive Design and Strategic Interaction

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