Sanctions Escalation Cascade Simulator
Treats sanctions as a six-stage escalation system rather than a binary decision. It connects transition risk and cost crossover analysis to circumvention feasibility, third-party contagion and sanctioning-coalition stability.
What the model examines
When does escalation become likely, when does compliance become cheaper than defiance and when does coalition cohesion or third-party contagion become the binding constraint?
How the model is structured
Deterministic rule-based transitions move through six escalation stages. Weighted multi-factor scoring measures intermediary feasibility and coalition fracture risk. Cost curves locate the compliance crossover while a trade-network process propagates secondary-sanctions decisions across third parties.
What this model is built to test
- Six-stage escalation reference
- Defiance-versus-compliance cost curves
- Intermediary feasibility analysis
- Secondary-sanctions contagion matrix
- Coalition fracture-risk ranking
- Coalition erosion scenarios
- Sanctions data explorer and export
Decision controls
- Target country
- Starting escalation stage
- Horizon and escalation speed
- Trigger severity
- International pressure
- Target defiance
- Coalition unity
- Political and strategic compliance costs
- Secondary-sanctions threshold
- Optional live-data fetch
Analytical returns
- Escalation transition score
- Six-stage cumulative economic impact
- Defiance and compliance cost crossover
- Intermediary feasibility ranking
- Trade-flow anomaly analysis
- Third-party contagion matrix
- Coalition cohesion and fracture-risk analysis
- Searchable sanctions data
- CSV export
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