DesigningDecision Systems
Models / Lab / System 06

EU-Africa Trade Circumvention Simulator

Estimates the risk that goods are rerouted or mis-declared where European Union Economic Partnership Agreement rules of origin meet AfCFTA liberalisation. It combines anomaly screening, behavioural simulation and rule-based policy recommendations across African countries.

Economic Statecraft, Trade and Coercion7 input groups8 output groups
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Decision problem

What the model examines

Which countries and product categories are most exposed to preferential-trade circumvention and which interventions are likely to reduce that exposure?

Analytical method

How the model is structured

The simulator combines Z-score anomaly detection, capacity-mismatch analysis, origin-shift correlation and Monte Carlo behavioural simulation with firm and state agents. A composite score reports structural vulnerability, anomaly signal, leakage and governance gap. Rule-based recommendations expose the triggering rule and the score movement needed to change tiers.

Interface

What this model is built to test

  • Portfolio overview with risk tiers
  • Country anomaly and leakage analysis
  • Regional and EPA-group comparison
  • Scenario fan charts
  • Policy reasoning trace
  • Counterfactual and intervention comparison
  • Data and briefing exports
Inputs

Decision controls

  • Country selection mode and country set
  • Export-spike Z-score threshold
  • Capacity-mismatch threshold
  • Monte Carlo iteration count
  • Named or custom policy scenario
  • Scenario levers
  • Briefing audience
Outputs

Analytical returns

  • Composite country risk scores
  • Country and product-category heatmaps
  • Anomaly flags
  • Leakage forecast distributions with uncertainty bands
  • Regional and EPA-group comparisons
  • Audience-specific policy briefs
  • Reasoning traces and counterfactuals
  • CSV and text exports
Fields of inquiry
Economic Statecraft, Trade and CoercionAlgorithmic Accountability and Public GovernanceRisk, Uncertainty and ForecastingInstitutional and Legal Design

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